06

Trends Report

Strategic foresight for retail

Role
Business Designer
Context
Elisava × IKEA Xplore Studio
Year
2025–2026
Type
Research, Foresight

01 — Trends research

What will loyalty and engagement look like in the future of retail?

For this group project in collaboration with IKEA's Xplore Studio and Elisava, our team developed a strategic trend report investigating the future of loyalty and engagement in retail. We began with an environmental scan to find signals, which we grouped into patterns on a Wall of Evidence. To validate these findings, we took to the street and conducted interviews with several business owners to see how these behaviors appear in real contexts. We then used Futures Wheels to map the consequences of these patterns and identify specific retail opportunities.

02 — Five core trends

Each trend names a tension retail will have to design around.

Trend 01

HCD Faces MCD

Design is moving beyond being human-centered. Machines increasingly communicate with each other rather than with the people who made them — and spaces, both digital and physical, are being reworked for machine precision and efficiency.

HCD Faces MCD — moodboard collage of automated warehouses, delivery robots and machine-first environments HCD Faces MCD key visual sphere

Trend 02

Create to Survive

As climate crises intensify and generative tools draft ideas before we even form them, creativity shifts from self-expression to survival skill — the capacity to imagine and make for ourselves again.

Create to Survive — moodboard collage of collective making, regenerative craft and creative resilience Create to Survive key visual sphere

Trend 03

Abstinent Self

In a world that constantly offers and demands more, saying no becomes a way to feel in control. Not moderation but elimination — no alcohol, no dating apps, no internet — to regain clarity.

Abstinent Self — moodboard collage of restraint, digital detox and deliberate emptiness Abstinent Self key visual sphere

Trend 04

Mood-Adaptive Living

Loneliness is rising while hyper-personalization trains us to expect environments that adapt to us. Spaces, objects and systems now sense our emotional state and shift in real time to support it.

Mood-Adaptive Living — moodboard collage of responsive interiors and emotionally intelligent objects Mood-Adaptive Living key visual sphere

Trend 05

Synthetic Confidence

AI thinks with us 24/7 — finishing sentences, shaping ideas, smoothing confusion. The result is confidence without comprehension: a borrowed certainty that makes us seem to know more than we do.

Synthetic Confidence — moodboard collage of AI assistance, polished surfaces and borrowed certainty Synthetic Confidence key visual sphere

03 — Creative output

Research only matters if decision-makers engage with it.

This process led to these five core trends. We packaged the research into a creative booklet and a gamified presentation. The presentation, modeled as a "Multiverse Game," required decision-makers to test strategic choices against our findings to ensure business survival.

Read the full booklet

Next project

IKEA Hej